Will Climate Change Alter What the World Eats?

Food For Thought in the Time of Climate Change

Food is not only a source of energy but something that defines us. It is part of our culture and history and even the keeper of our moods. For example, when one consumes carbohydrates, the mood improves because a nonessential amino acid called Tryptophan is produced, and the happiness hormone, serotonin, is synthesised in our body. Certain food available in certain geographies helps us maintain health and well-being. A herder living in the Himalayas might be drinking Yak butter tea frequently not only for its taste but for the heat and body strength that it provides. In a discussion on climate change, this is why we cannot ignore the accompanying changes that enter into our food culture.

Certain food crops have already shown signs of being affected by climate change. If their production declines, we may abandon our mundane food habits. More importantly, the resulting high prices of these food items would reduce our access to them and affect our daily nutrition. Naturally, certain food items might also become less expensive as warmer climates will favour their production. Here are some examples of what the changes might look like.

Specific Case Studies: Climate Impact on Individual Food Choices

Oysters

Oyster shell formation is being affected by global warming. The problem oyster farming faces now is the ocean acidification caused by global warming, and oyster farmers around the world have observed that their oyster larvae metamorphosis process (of growing protective shell encasement) is considerably slowing down. To avert this problem, farmers are now keeping seawater in a buffer zone to cool it down, and only then can they introduce it to the oyster hatcheries. This is just a temporary solution, and what will happen to the oysters when the seawater gets warmer worries them.

Fish

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts that the harvest of the world’s important fish species will come down by 40% owing to global warming. It is alarming to think about how the price of fish will escalate in such a situation and whether this food item will still be on our platter. The US Geological Survey has reported a decline in inland fish species, such as sockeye salmon, lake trout, and walleye, as a result of the rising temperature of the water in lakes and rivers.

Wheat

In 2016, The Washington Post cited a new study suggesting that if global temperature increases just by one degree, wheat production will fall by 4.1%-6.4%. A reduction of 5% in terms of quantity is equivalent to 35 million tons of wheat per year. 2.5 billion people in the world consume wheat. How the world will cope with a drastic dip in the production of one of its staple diet crops is a big question. Some studies have given contradictory findings that conclude when the atmosphere gets warmer, wheat production may increase. Yet, the majority of studies say that production will go down.

Arabica Coffee

Arabica is the coffee variety that contributes to 80% of the world’s coffee production output. A study by Tavares et al. (2018) in Brazil (the largest global producer of Arabica coffee) indicated that in the next 80 years, Brazil’s coffee production area will be reduced by 60% because of dry seasons induced by global warming. In such a scenario, how much a kilo of Arabica coffee will cost and how many on earth could afford it is anyone’s guess.

Avocado

Production of avocados is anticipated to decline by 40% due to global warming and frequent droughts. We may see this happen in the next 30 years. Avocado-flavoured summer salads, pies, Guacamole, and Fettuccine could become history on the menu of the common man.

The Growing Seasons and Climate Change

The alarming aspect of climate-related changes in agricultural production is that most of the crops affected will be the ones on top of the list of the world's staple food. Rice, fruits, and potatoes are examples.

Fruits and nuts growing in temperate regions, like apples and cashews, need a natural winter dip in temperature to induce fruit set. Global warming is affecting this winter chill. The result is a diminished yield, which will escalate the prices.

Hop

The distinct flavour of beer comes from the flowers of the hop plant. The bad news is that climate change-induced drought in the growing areas affects the quantity and quality of the hop produced.

Rice: Rice, the staple diet of half of the world’s population, is also affected by global warming. Water shortage might cause a fall in rice yield and productivity. The waterlogged rice fields are found to emit methane gas into the atmosphere, which contributes to global warming. Hence, there will be more pressure from the international community upon the rice-producing countries, mostly developing nations, to limit their rice cultivation area. This also will hurt the production output and the world's food security. 

Chocolate

The major cocoa growers of the world, Ghana and the Ivory Coast are facing drought in cocoa cultivation areas. By 2050, it is predicted cocoa cultivation will have to be shifted to higher altitudes as the temperature in lower altitude regions increases.

Potato

Potatoes are threatened by climate change because many wild relatives of potato plants will perish under higher temperatures. As a result, the pests that attack wild potato plants will come in search of cultivated plants. It is the wild varieties of any crop used in the research of developing pest, disease, and drought-resistant new varieties. When wild varieties are gone, such research will suffer a huge setback.

Food That We May Find Plentier

In response to a warmer climate, the thyme variety, which generates more phenolic compounds in its plant body, is becoming more prevalent than it used to be. It seems thyme will survive climate change.

Salmon

Pink Salmons and Sockeye salmons seem to have decided to migrate earlier for breeding to survive warmer waters in their natural habitat. Salmons need plenty of water to breed, and water needs to be cold and clean. The glaciers and snowpacks are melting earlier than usual, and the young salmon are washed away into the sea too early by flash floods and stronger river flow. 

Halophytes

Halophytes are plants that can grow in saltwater. As the Earth warms up, sea levels will rise. As a result, many freshwater bodies may turn saline. Humanity will need to focus its attention on edible halophytes to meet our food requirements. Salt-tolerant varieties of different vegetables are also being developed. Edible saltwater plants like sea beans, sea aster, agretti, and sea kale could become a part of our daily menu once the earth warms a bit more.

Quinoa

Quinoa, a South American grain, is adaptable to varied climates and soils. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has recognised quinoa as a staple crop substitute. 

Food for a Future Defined by Climate Change

It looks like we are going to fall back on the long-neglected indigenous crops once the world heats up. Millets such as sorghum and tuber crops like Yam, the crops with minimal water needs, could get promoted to the list of food items that are better cultivable. Of course, they do not lack nutrition, but their mass production to meet the planet's food needs will be challenging for farmers and agricultural scientists. Imagine a breakfast or dinner with no apples, coffee or wheat products but with quinoa and sea vegetables! Sure, we might be on to some incredible palate adjustments.

References

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Tavares et al., (March 2018), Climate change impact on the potential yield of Arabica coffee in southeast Brazil, Regional Environmental Change, 18 (3), pp.873-883.

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